Naive Realism
Entry question: Who is the greatest con artist in the world?
Public Enemy Number One: Naive Realism
We believe that what we think is true is actually true.
This is the disastrous problem of Naive Realism!
We think the way the world seems to us is the way it actually is.
- I feel like I’ve studied that topic well enough. Therefore, I’ve actually studied that topic well enough (no need to revise further).
- I feel like I don’t eat too much junk food. Therefore, I actually don’t (no need to hold back next time - yum yum).
- It feels like there is enough petrol in the tank. Therefore, there is actually enough petrol in the tank (no need to fill it).
Sooner or later, Reality hits us in the face.
It’s not like we consciously go with our mind’s answer. We don’t see it as “our mind’s answer”. We see it as the answer. To our mind, appearance is reality. Thus, we don’t feel the need to check the empirical results. We don’t feel like asking Reality for the right answer. We simply go with what our mind says. Not only do we have the wrong answer, we resist looking for the right one!
The actual results might even be near at hand. We will just ignore them and keep going on our path. Why would we change? We have got strong evidence from our brain. It feels like we have lots of information. If you have lots of information, why would you go look for more? It’s not going to change your decision.
So, we won’t budge unless our feelings change. That usually needs in-your-face data that we can’t brush aside. Even worse, we humans go out of our way to avoid facing “harsh truths” (and if we delude ourselves about being better than we are, all truths are harsh truths). Thus, there is little or no chance of us actually changing our ways.
This, in my humble opinion, is the most dangerous problem in the entire world. 1
Can’t we trust our own minds?
So many people insist on tracking their
- workout details every day
- or weight every week
- or number of hours slept every day
- or number of hours spent on different activities
and so on.
I’d always thought of them as overly-bureaucratic sissies. Why would you want to check your weight every week? Don’t you know if you’re getting fatter?
Sadly, the empirical answer is no. In the past, I’ve gained a dozen pounds without even realizing it. You cannot trust your beliefs as they appear in your brain. But that’s what we’re wont to do. That’s our default way of working.
Moral of the Story: Don’t trust your beliefs. Always ask for empirical evidence.
Note: There is a small caveat here. As you become more experienced in a domain, your intuitions about how well you did usually correlate with the empirical measurements. In that case, you can put some weight behind your judgments. But, given how f*cked up the human brain is, you’re best off seeking empirical evidence wherever possible.
Where does Naive Realism get us?
Answer: Everywhere!
Any time you think “X has happened”, what you actually mean is “It feels like X has happened.”
The only way to know for sure whether X happened is to get empirical evidence.
Likewise:
- “X exists” -> “It feels like X exists” (substitute any value for X - God, True Love)
- “I did X” -> “It feels like I did X”
- “I understood X” -> “It feels like I understood X”
- “X is good” -> “It feels like X is good”
You get in trouble whenever your feeling is out of sync with reality.
“I understand this topic. No need to revise it further.”
You go to the exam hall and find that you can’t solve any problem on that topic.
What happened? Naive Realism got you, bitch!
“I did a lot of work on my project today. There is only a little work left.”
You turn on your computer the next morning. Oops. There’s like 50% of the project still to be done. How could you have missed that?!
What happened? Bazinga!
“This is an awesome phone. I have to get it. I will be really happy if I do.”
You buy it. Within a week, you don’t even notice that you have a new phone. $200 gone and no extra happiness.
What happened? Burnt by Naive Realism!
“I have to get a girlfriend. I will be insanely happy if I do. I will be miserable for the rest of my life if I don’t.”
You know how the story goes. You will live happily ever after. Oops. Sorry. You won’t.
What happened? Naive Realism bamboozled you.
Bah! Big deal. Yeah, we all fall prey to this “Naive Realism” once in a while. So what? It’s not a big problem.
Ahhh! Wrong Answer!
It feels like it’s not a big problem. But it actually is, trust me.
Wait. You shouldn’t trust me. You should ask for the data. Well, think of places in your life where you think “X” is true but in reality it isn’t, and where you end up getting burnt big time. The above examples should be a good starting point.
I’ll add more data in upcoming essays.
The Last Refuge: Empirical Evidence
All hail!
The only way to escape the treacherous tentacles of Naive Realism is to rely completely on empirical evidence, as far as you can.
Go by what the objective Measurement tool says, not your easily deceived internal senses. Do this for anything and everything. If you don’t have an objective Measurement tool for the area you care about, run - don’t walk - run to the store and get yourself a Measurement tool right now!
Do this especially when you feel like you don’t need to do it at all.
“I studied that topic yesterday. I really did. I understood it well.”
That’s how Naive Realism gets you. It makes you believe that your information accurately reflects reality. Is it in line with the other information you have on the topic? You don’t know. Did you get it from some reliable source? Not sure. Does it match up with some objective measurements? You haven’t really checked. But is it true? Yup! That you know for sure. 100% true.
It is the greatest con artist of all time. It makes you blindly trust the most untrustworthy source in the world - your own mind.
(I’m only half-kidding)
(no, seriously)
(don’t trust your mind)
(ever)
Pop quiz (100 marks): Have you understood the concept of Naive Realism? Really?
Footnotes
Sorry, no empirical evidence to back that up. But, I know it for sure!↩
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